There are many decisions in the world of life. Some decisions have huge consequences however, others don't. Certain decisions are easy and others are very complex. In the business world decisions-making systems are being studied in depth and we are just starting to have a clearer idea of best practices in this domain. Ideal for stable environments, these best practices are usually founded on the assumption the decision-maker possesses a decent amount of information about the circumstances. However, in uncertain environments there is a lack of information. Without sufficient data or references, how do we make educated decisions? The different between uncertainty and risk The method of making decisions in risky circumstances is fairly clear: identifying possible outcomes, assessing the impact and estimating the likelihood of them occurring. We then can decide on the most appropriate course of action in light of the probability and impact. For instance, someone who owns a house in an area prone to flooding may choose to mitigate the possibility (by constructing the dike), to avoid the risk (by moving), to transfer it (by getting insurance) or reduce it (by lifting furniture above the surface) or just to accept it. This approach isn't suited to situations characterised by uncertainty, where it is not possible to predict the outcomes that could occur and the probability of each or their impact. Uncertainty and risk are two different things. Risk management models can become ineffective under uncertain conditions. Uncertainty may make it difficult to know what is happening and the possible consequences in addition to the actions we can take. Here are 5 ways to make decisions in uncertain circumstances Have a vision of your goals instead of evaluating alternatives. Identify the question you want to answer, identify the requirements for success, and then evaluate your options based on their impact on the achievement of your vision. This will prevent you from falling into the temptation of comparing options for which information is lacking. Establish a group where discordant voices can be heard. Uncertain situations by nature are inherently uncertain and ambiguous. You can view the entire picture by bringing together people with different perspectives. Distinguishing differing views can make the debate more interesting. Take action quickly. There will be a limit to the choices you have. You can make a decision quickly and increase your odds of escaping uncertainty. Seek counsel in action. Don't wait to get more details before taking actions. Wanting more data is not good, since information tells us more about the situation and allows us to get a more comprehensive understanding. The process of waiting and collecting more data comes at a price but that is the inability to take a decision. The information we require isn't always readily accessible. We have access to information regarding our lives, and we can imagine possible outcomes, but it's impossible to know the future. Once you expect a knockout post about random pictures, look at here. Develop options and improve flexibility and reversibility. You risk making a bad decision if you make decisions quickly. You can switch between different alternatives by identifying the prerequisites for their use and deciding which one to choose in the event you have more details. Cultural change Although certain of these methods are well-established in organisations (adopting visions, creating teams with dissonant vocals) Some, like those two practices are against the conventional belief that every detail is a fact. It is important to consider every option before we take a decision. It is impossible to change a decision that we have made previously for fear of losing our face. Being able to deal with uncertainty more effectively requires us to alter our entire attitude toward knowledge and decision-making, not just updating our project management tools. In the first place, we need to recognize that there is more to learn through action than reflection and that it is more efficient to make changes quickly instead of wasting time developing an opinion.
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